MIN Vikings 2023-24 NFL Win Total + Season Record Predictions & Odds

The Minnesota Vikings enjoyed one of the best records in the NFL last season behind a dynamic offense led by wide receiver Justin Jefferson, finishing first in the NFC North by four games with a dominant 13-4 showing. The wins and losses ultimately proved an inaccurate measure of the team’s quality, however, as the underlying numbers suggested regression would bite them eventually. Unfortunately for Minnesota fans, that regression hit in the playoffs, when the Vikings were bounced at home by the New York Giants in the Wild Card Round.

Now, entering 2023 with some key losses to their roster and an uncertain picture in the NFC North, the Vikings are perhaps one of the most difficult reads for futures betting. Our experts have scoured their schedule, took a deep dive into their roster and uncovered some advanced stats to deliver confident Vikings predictions regarding a pick on the team’s win total at PointsBet Sportsbook. Keep reading for a complete analysis paired with details of PointsBet’s $150 sign-up bonus.

2023-24 MINNESOTA VIKINGS WIN TOTAL PREDICTION: Over 8.5 Wins (-110 at PointsBet Sportsbook)

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Minnesota Vikings NFL Season Record & Schedule Predictions

We must preface our Vikings predictions with a claim that this team will not reach 11 wins, and maybe not even 10. Our experts have great confidence pinning this team with a 9-8 record exactly, still clearing their win total of 8.5 games. This sounds like it could be dangerous, and many signs point to the Vikings finishing below 8.5 wins, but while we do expect regression, we have plenty of reason to believe this squad can secure another winning season.

We begin our Vikings predictions with a little breakdown of their schedule. Just as they blew the doors off the Packers at home to open last season, we expect another strong home opener from the Vikings when they host the declining Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday. After that game, the schedule difficulty ticks up quite a bit. In the next six games, four are against Super Bowl favorites like the Philadelphia Eagles, Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers. Another game is against the playoff-hopeful Los Angeles Chargers, and the other two games are road battles against the upstart Carolina Panthers and Chicago Bears.

How the Vikings handle this six-game stretch goes a long way in deciding their win total for the season. But even so, the schedule doesn’t ever feel like it lightens up, considering two rivalry games with the division-favorite Lions are waiting back there. The second half does provide more winnable games, however, such as two games against the Packers, at home against both the Bears and Saints and on the road in Denver, Las Vegas and Atlanta, but there are no guarantees. The Packers, Bears, Saints, Falcons and Broncos all possess degrees of upside. The Vikings are hoping some of these questionable teams squander their potential by this point in the schedule.

In all, the Vikings boast a top-10 most difficult strength of schedule. Minnesota managed a 4-3 record against teams with a winning record last season, but their -47-point differential in those games is alarming. The Vikings went an unprecedented 11-0 in one-score games last season, and although this simply can’t keep up in 2023-24, we believe they can steal some more of these games behind head coach Kevin O’Connell’s well-schemed offense and a defense that can only take a step forward.

With the schedule analysis out there, let’s cover why our Vikings predictions see this team winning enough to clear their win total, and why they won’t win enough to be as good as last year.

Vikings Win Total & Win-Loss Record Predictions for 2023-24

All of a sudden, Kirk Cousins is the most tenured and most proven quarterback in the NFC North. With Rodgers gone to New York, the surrounding QBs are Jared Goff, Jordan Love and Justin Fields. The ceiling for the latter two candidates is high, but we know what to expect from Cousins. The connection between Cousins and Justin Jefferson, arguably the NFL’s best receiver, is special and a primary factor leading us to believe this team will finish above .500. Adam Thielen is gone, but first-round rookie wideout Jordan Addison can make an immediate impact trumping what an aging Thielen provided the last couple of seasons.

At running back, a substantial piece in Dalvin Cook is gone, but Alexander Mattison has been with this team a few years now and can step in and immediately produce behind an offensive line that returns all five starters and is now healthy. For as many warning signs as there are with this group signaling negative regression, the health of the offensive line provides an area of positive regression, enabling both the running and passing effort of an offense that already ranked among the top groups last season.

Another reason our Vikings predictions regarding the win total is on the Over 8.5 wins (-110 at PointsBet) is Brian Flores stepping in as defensive coordinator. The ex-Dolphins head coach specializes on this side of the ball and should help improve one of the league’s worst secondaries in 2022. A healthy Lewis Cine and Andrew Booth Jr., plus the addition of Byron Murphy Jr. should also help alleviate concerns with this unit.

The Vikings had some of the best injury luck of any team last year outside the O-line, they won far too many close games, and their defense is still lagging, so expect regression, but not enough regression to say this team will have a losing record in a muddle NFC North. The offense should still be explosive, and the defense should be better, so while we expect their record to decline, we still believe this is a winning squad whose advanced metrics can be improved from 2022-23.

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Minnesota Vikings Win Total & Season Record Odds for 2023-24 Presented by PointsBet

PointsBet has set the Vikings’ win total at 8.5 with -110 odds on both the over and under. To profit $10 backing our Vikings predictions, you will need to wager $11, and the Vikings to win nine or more games. To profit $10 on the under, you will need an $11 wager, and the Vikings to win eight games or less. Either way, become a new PointsBet member and seize $150 off Fanatics with this unique sign-up offer.

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